Minority Report

Decatur, IN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Adams County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 48°   Low 39°   Rain 84%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 39 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 61% against a group average of 84%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°61%
US model (GFS)48°41°76%
European model (ECMWF)49°41°100%
Canadian model (GEM)47°39°100%
The average48°39°84%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 32°   Rain 30%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 47 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 57% against a group average of 30%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°27°18%
US model (GFS)41°31°10%
European model (ECMWF)43°34°57%
Canadian model (GEM)41°34°37%
The average42°32°30%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 30°   Rain 4%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 9 points, 4 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°34°9%
US model (GFS)45°31°5%
European model (ECMWF)45°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)42°25°0%
The average44°30°4%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 35°   Rain 5%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 13 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°31°13%
US model (GFS)46°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)45°39°2%
Canadian model (GEM)45°32°5%
The average46°35°5%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.