Minority Report

Defiance, OH — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Defiance County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 48°   Low 39°   Rain 81%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 58 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 42% against a group average of 81%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°42%
US model (GFS)48°41°70%
European model (ECMWF)50°42°100%
German model (ICON)49°40°93%
Canadian model (GEM)48°39°100%
The average48°39°81%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 31°   Rain 23%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 32 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 45% against a group average of 23%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°27°16%
US model (GFS)41°31°15%
European model (ECMWF)42°36°45%
German model (ICON)43°31°28%
Canadian model (GEM)40°31°13%
The average42°31°23%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 29°   Rain 3%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°33°8%
US model (GFS)42°31°2%
European model (ECMWF)45°29°0%
German model (ICON)46°28°3%
Canadian model (GEM)44°27°0%
The average44°29°3%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 33°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 11 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°30°11%
US model (GFS)47°39°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°34°0%
German model (ICON)47°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°24°0%
The average46°33°2%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.