Minority Report

Denali Borough, AK — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Denali Borough.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 22°   Low 13°   Rain 3%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 11°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service23°14°8%
US model (GFS)19°11°0%
European model (ECMWF)19°10°2%
German model (ICON)30°19°3%
Canadian model (GEM)22°9°0%
The average22°13°3%

Friday, November 13

High 16°   Low 9°   Rain 4%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service19°11°9%
US model (GFS)14°8°0%
European model (ECMWF)14°10°6%
German model (ICON)21°12°0%
Canadian model (GEM)14°6°3%
The average16°9°4%

Saturday, November 14

High 12°   Low 7°   Rain 18%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 18%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service15°12°7%
US model (GFS)10°3°7%
European model (ECMWF)11°3°24%
German model (ICON)13°9°22%
Canadian model (GEM)10°8°29%
The average12°7°18%

Sunday, November 15

High 15°   Low 7°   Rain 12%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 18°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 12%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service20°16°4%
US model (GFS)10°4°6%
European model (ECMWF)10°5°24%
German model (ICON)26°9°10%
Canadian model (GEM)8°2°14%
The average15°7°12%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.