Denton, MD — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Caroline County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 66° Low 48° Rain 54%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 72 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 40° | 24% |
| US model (GFS) | 68° | 50° | 32% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 66° | 50° | 96% |
| German model (ICON) | 64° | 50° | 83% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 66° | 49° | 33% |
| The average | 66° | 48° | 54% |
High 50° Low 38° Rain 53%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 48 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 49° | 32° | 47% |
| US model (GFS) | 50° | 38° | 27% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 51° | 40° | 75% |
| German model (ICON) | 51° | 40° | 63% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 50° | 42° | 54% |
| The average | 50° | 38° | 53% |
High 48° Low 36° Rain 22%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 43 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 50° | 33° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 47° | 35° | 7% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 48° | 37° | 19% |
| German model (ICON) | 48° | 37° | 43% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 48° | 37° | 39% |
| The average | 48° | 36° | 22% |
High 51° Low 38° Rain 0%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 53° | 32° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 49° | 38° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 51° | 38° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 51° | 40° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 51° | 40° | 0% |
| The average | 51° | 38° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.