Minority Report

Dillon, MT — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Beaverhead County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 57°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°0%
US model (GFS)59°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)55°34°0%
German model (ICON)57°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)58°36°0%
The average57°33°0%

Friday, November 13

High 58°   Low 35°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°34°9%
US model (GFS)56°36°1%
European model (ECMWF)56°34°0%
German model (ICON)58°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)59°36°0%
The average58°35°2%

Saturday, November 14

High 50°   Low 33°   Rain 25%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 21 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 12% against a group average of 25%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°29°29%
US model (GFS)46°35°19%
European model (ECMWF)51°37°12%
German model (ICON)48°36°30%
Canadian model (GEM)55°28°33%
The average50°33°25%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 29°   Rain 1%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°28°2%
US model (GFS)46°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)49°33°0%
German model (ICON)49°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°20°5%
The average49°29°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.