Minority Report

Dodge City, KS — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Ford County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 66°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°0%
US model (GFS)66°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)63°40°0%
German model (ICON)66°39°0%
Canadian model (GEM)67°36°0%
The average66°37°0%

Friday, November 13

High 54°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°32°2%
US model (GFS)54°35°0%
European model (ECMWF)53°36°0%
German model (ICON)52°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°30°0%
The average54°33°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 34°   Rain 81%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 32 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 63% against a group average of 81%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°36°95%
US model (GFS)51°32°78%
European model (ECMWF)47°36°89%
German model (ICON)50°35°63%
Canadian model (GEM)49°34°80%
The average49°34°81%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 38°   Rain 77%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 60 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 35% against a group average of 77%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°34°35%
US model (GFS)42°39°88%
European model (ECMWF)44°40°95%
German model (ICON)42°38°78%
Canadian model (GEM)42°37°90%
The average43°38°77%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.