Minority Report

Dover, DE — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Kent County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 67°   Low 48°   Rain 53%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 90 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 53%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—41°38%
US model (GFS)68°49°23%
European model (ECMWF)64°51°100%
German model (ICON)64°50°93%
Canadian model (GEM)70°49°10%
The average67°48°53%

Friday, November 13

High 50°   Low 37°   Rain 67%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 47 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 39% against a group average of 67%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°33°68%
US model (GFS)51°36°39%
European model (ECMWF)51°39°86%
German model (ICON)51°38°78%
Canadian model (GEM)50°40°62%
The average50°37°67%

Saturday, November 14

High 47°   Low 36°   Rain 28%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 60 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 60% against a group average of 28%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°34°0%
US model (GFS)46°35°12%
European model (ECMWF)48°37°23%
German model (ICON)48°35°60%
Canadian model (GEM)47°37°45%
The average47°36°28%

Sunday, November 15

High 50°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°32°0%
US model (GFS)48°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°40°2%
German model (ICON)51°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°39°0%
The average50°37°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.