Minority Report

Doylestown, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Bucks County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 59°   Low 45°   Rain 93%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 25 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 75% against a group average of 93%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°75%
US model (GFS)60°47°90%
European model (ECMWF)58°48°100%
German model (ICON)59°47°100%
Canadian model (GEM)58°47°100%
The average59°45°93%

Friday, November 13

High 47°   Low 34°   Rain 96%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 14 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 86% against a group average of 96%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°31°96%
US model (GFS)47°32°86%
European model (ECMWF)49°35°99%
German model (ICON)47°37°100%
Canadian model (GEM)47°35°100%
The average47°34°96%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 33°   Rain 24%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 42 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 3% against a group average of 24%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°32°3%
US model (GFS)42°31°12%
European model (ECMWF)45°33°17%
German model (ICON)45°33°45%
Canadian model (GEM)42°35°43%
The average44°33°24%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 34°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°32°0%
US model (GFS)44°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°36°2%
German model (ICON)47°36°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°32°0%
The average46°34°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.