Minority Report

Dumas, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Moore County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 71°   Low 42°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—39°0%
US model (GFS)71°40°0%
European model (ECMWF)71°45°0%
German model (ICON)72°43°0%
Canadian model (GEM)71°41°0%
The average71°42°0%

Friday, November 13

High 62°   Low 40°   Rain 1%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°40°6%
US model (GFS)65°41°0%
European model (ECMWF)62°41°0%
German model (ICON)59°40°0%
Canadian model (GEM)62°35°0%
The average62°40°1%

Saturday, November 14

High 47°   Low 40°   Rain 87%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 17 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 98% against a group average of 87%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°39°83%
US model (GFS)50°38°87%
European model (ECMWF)45°41°98%
German model (ICON)44°42°81%
Canadian model (GEM)44°38°86%
The average47°40°87%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 39°   Rain 58%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 68 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 17% against a group average of 58%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°35°17%
US model (GFS)48°41°85%
European model (ECMWF)44°40°69%
German model (ICON)44°41°60%
Canadian model (GEM)43°37°57%
The average45°39°58%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.