Minority Report

Duncan, OK — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Stephens County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 74°   Low 45°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—43°0%
US model (GFS)75°47°0%
European model (ECMWF)72°46°0%
German model (ICON)73°46°0%
Canadian model (GEM)75°45°0%
The average74°45°0%

Friday, November 13

High 60°   Low 43°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service60°41°0%
US model (GFS)61°45°0%
European model (ECMWF)59°44°0%
German model (ICON)60°41°0%
Canadian model (GEM)62°44°0%
The average60°43°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 57°   Low 42°   Rain 83%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 31 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 63% against a group average of 83%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°42°91%
US model (GFS)59°41°74%
European model (ECMWF)57°44°94%
German model (ICON)56°42°93%
Canadian model (GEM)58°42°63%
The average57°42°83%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 42°   Rain 95%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°39°88%
US model (GFS)49°43°87%
European model (ECMWF)47°43°100%
German model (ICON)44°42°98%
Canadian model (GEM)44°41°100%
The average47°42°95%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.