Durham, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Durham County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 70° Low 46° Rain 25%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 48 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 40° | 1% |
| US model (GFS) | 70° | 48° | 20% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 69° | 49° | 49% |
| German model (ICON) | 70° | 46° | 48% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 72° | 46° | 5% |
| The average | 70° | 46° | 25% |
High 57° Low 40° Rain 11%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 58° | 33° | 16% |
| US model (GFS) | 56° | 41° | 9% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 56° | 44° | 22% |
| German model (ICON) | 57° | 38° | 5% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 60° | 44° | 2% |
| The average | 57° | 40° | 11% |
High 53° Low 35° Rain 4%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 14 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 54° | 32° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 54° | 34° | 2% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 52° | 39° | 14% |
| German model (ICON) | 53° | 33° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 53° | 36° | 5% |
| The average | 53° | 35° | 4% |
High 55° Low 34° Rain 0%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 55° | 32° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 55° | 39° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 54° | 37° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 58° | 31° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 53° | 30° | 0% |
| The average | 55° | 34° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.