Minority Report

Easton, MD — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Talbot County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 65°   Low 49°   Rain 51%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 62 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 88% against a group average of 51%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—41°26%
US model (GFS)66°48°27%
European model (ECMWF)64°51°88%
German model (ICON)62°52°80%
Canadian model (GEM)67°51°33%
The average65°49°51%

Friday, November 13

High 51°   Low 40°   Rain 51%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 56 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 22% against a group average of 51%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°35°49%
US model (GFS)48°39°22%
European model (ECMWF)52°41°78%
German model (ICON)53°43°53%
Canadian model (GEM)51°43°54%
The average51°40°51%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 39°   Rain 19%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 38 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 39% against a group average of 19%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°37°1%
US model (GFS)48°35°5%
European model (ECMWF)49°40°17%
German model (ICON)50°41°35%
Canadian model (GEM)48°42°39%
The average49°39°19%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 40°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°35°0%
US model (GFS)49°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)51°41°2%
German model (ICON)52°44°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°41°0%
The average51°40°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.