Minority Report

Eastville, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Northampton County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 68°   Low 51°   Rain 13%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 21 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 27% against a group average of 13%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—41°6%
US model (GFS)70°54°12%
European model (ECMWF)67°57°27%
German model (ICON)66°56°10%
Canadian model (GEM)69°48°10%
The average68°51°13%

Friday, November 13

High 56°   Low 45°   Rain 18%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 33 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 38% against a group average of 18%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°40°15%
US model (GFS)55°42°5%
European model (ECMWF)58°48°38%
German model (ICON)56°47°5%
Canadian model (GEM)56°47°28%
The average56°45°18%

Saturday, November 14

High 52°   Low 43°   Rain 20%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 45 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 49% against a group average of 20%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°41°9%
US model (GFS)51°40°4%
European model (ECMWF)51°45°49%
German model (ICON)52°43°5%
Canadian model (GEM)50°44°33%
The average52°43°20%

Sunday, November 15

High 53°   Low 45°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°40°0%
US model (GFS)52°44°0%
European model (ECMWF)53°47°2%
German model (ICON)54°46°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°46°0%
The average53°45°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.