Minority Report

El Dorado, KS — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Butler County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 58°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°0%
US model (GFS)60°41°0%
European model (ECMWF)57°39°0%
German model (ICON)57°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)59°40°0%
The average58°37°0%

Friday, November 13

High 49°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°29°0%
US model (GFS)48°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°33°0%
German model (ICON)49°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°31°0%
The average49°30°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 51°   Low 31°   Rain 5%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 11 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°36°13%
US model (GFS)50°30°2%
European model (ECMWF)50°32°2%
German model (ICON)52°30°5%
Canadian model (GEM)52°30°5%
The average51°31°5%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 38°   Rain 28%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 45 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 57% against a group average of 28%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°33°30%
US model (GFS)46°41°23%
European model (ECMWF)48°37°12%
German model (ICON)49°41°20%
Canadian model (GEM)44°39°57%
The average47°38°28%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.