Minority Report

Elbow Lake, MN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Grant County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 39°   Low 26°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 4 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—22°0%
US model (GFS)39°26°0%
European model (ECMWF)39°30°4%
German model (ICON)39°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)38°21°0%
The average39°26°1%

Friday, November 13

High 37°   Low 23°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service38°22°0%
US model (GFS)34°26°0%
European model (ECMWF)38°28°0%
German model (ICON)36°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)37°16°0%
The average37°23°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 41°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°26°0%
US model (GFS)42°28°0%
European model (ECMWF)42°28°0%
German model (ICON)40°25°0%
Canadian model (GEM)39°20°0%
The average41°25°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°34°0%
US model (GFS)48°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°31°0%
German model (ICON)50°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°22°0%
The average48°30°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.