Minority Report

Elizabethtown, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Bladen County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 74°   Low 51°   Rain 11%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 31 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 31% against a group average of 11%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—44°0%
US model (GFS)76°52°9%
European model (ECMWF)73°53°31%
German model (ICON)76°51°13%
Canadian model (GEM)73°53°0%
The average74°51°11%

Friday, November 13

High 60°   Low 42°   Rain 3%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°35°7%
US model (GFS)59°44°1%
European model (ECMWF)60°45°1%
German model (ICON)60°40°5%
Canadian model (GEM)60°46°2%
The average60°42°3%

Saturday, November 14

High 55°   Low 36°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°32°0%
US model (GFS)55°36°1%
European model (ECMWF)54°38°4%
German model (ICON)55°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°39°5%
The average55°36°2%

Sunday, November 15

High 57°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°32°0%
US model (GFS)56°35°0%
European model (ECMWF)55°35°0%
German model (ICON)58°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°31°0%
The average57°32°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.