Elizabethtown, NY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Essex County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 41° Low 33° Rain 54%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 60 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 28° | 37% |
| US model (GFS) | 42° | 33° | 32% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 41° | 36° | 92% |
| German model (ICON) | 39° | 34° | 50% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 41° | 34° | 57% |
| The average | 41° | 33° | 54% |
High 40° Low 31° Rain 17%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 29 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 41° | 25° | 17% |
| US model (GFS) | 40° | 32° | 8% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 41° | 33° | 6% |
| German model (ICON) | 39° | 32° | 18% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 39° | 33° | 35% |
| The average | 40° | 31° | 17% |
High 41° Low 33° Rain 38%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 42° | 28° | 29% |
| US model (GFS) | 40° | 33° | 37% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 43° | 34° | 53% |
| German model (ICON) | 41° | 34° | 40% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 40° | 35° | 31% |
| The average | 41° | 33° | 38% |
High 42° Low 33° Rain 23%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 15 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 43° | 28° | 21% |
| US model (GFS) | 39° | 31° | 31% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 43° | 34° | 19% |
| German model (ICON) | 40° | 36° | 16% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 42° | 35° | 27% |
| The average | 42° | 33° | 23% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.