Minority Report

Elkader, IA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Clayton County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 41°   Low 32°   Rain 6%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 15 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 16% against a group average of 6%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—26°1%
US model (GFS)41°32°1%
European model (ECMWF)41°35°6%
German model (ICON)42°32°5%
Canadian model (GEM)42°34°16%
The average41°32°6%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°22°0%
US model (GFS)40°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)40°27°0%
German model (ICON)41°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)42°24°0%
The average41°26°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°23°0%
US model (GFS)44°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)43°26°0%
German model (ICON)44°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°19°0%
The average44°25°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°26°0%
US model (GFS)48°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°28°0%
German model (ICON)48°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°14°0%
The average47°25°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.