Minority Report

Elkins, WV — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Randolph County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 49°   Low 36°   Rain 88%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 38 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 62% against a group average of 88%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—28°62%
US model (GFS)49°40°76%
European model (ECMWF)50°40°100%
German model (ICON)50°36°100%
Canadian model (GEM)48°39°100%
The average49°36°88%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 29°   Rain 74%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 56 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 44% against a group average of 74%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°24°48%
US model (GFS)40°31°44%
European model (ECMWF)40°30°90%
German model (ICON)40°32°88%
Canadian model (GEM)41°30°100%
The average40°29°74%

Saturday, November 14

High 38°   Low 28°   Rain 56%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 49 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 90% against a group average of 56%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°24°49%
US model (GFS)36°31°48%
European model (ECMWF)40°29°41%
German model (ICON)39°30°53%
Canadian model (GEM)36°27°90%
The average38°28°56%

Sunday, November 15

High 39°   Low 32°   Rain 45%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 79 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 97% against a group average of 45%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°26°32%
US model (GFS)38°32°18%
European model (ECMWF)40°34°39%
German model (ICON)39°33°37%
Canadian model (GEM)38°31°97%
The average39°32°45%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.