Minority Report

Ellensburg, WA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Kittitas County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 51°   Low 38°   Rain 2%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 6 points, 3 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°4%
US model (GFS)48°39°0%
German model (ICON)55°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°41°6%
The average51°38°2%

Friday, November 13

High 52°   Low 38°   Rain 66%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 9°, rain spread 23 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 53% against a group average of 66%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°33°63%
US model (GFS)47°35°53%
German model (ICON)56°44°73%
Canadian model (GEM)53°40°76%
The average52°38°66%

Saturday, November 14

High 52°   Low 35°   Rain 37%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 43 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 14% against a group average of 37%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°33°48%
US model (GFS)54°35°57%
German model (ICON)53°37°28%
Canadian model (GEM)51°34°14%
The average52°35°37%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 36°   Rain 60%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 37 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 81% against a group average of 60%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°29°44%
US model (GFS)50°43°57%
German model (ICON)51°39°59%
Canadian model (GEM)48°34°81%
The average49°36°60%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.