Ellicott City, MD — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Howard County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 63° Low 47° Rain 60%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 92 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 40° | 8% |
| US model (GFS) | 62° | 46° | 39% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 63° | 49° | 100% |
| German model (ICON) | 62° | 50° | 98% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 64° | 47° | 57% |
| The average | 63° | 47° | 60% |
High 48° Low 38° Rain 41%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 47 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 47° | 33° | 24% |
| US model (GFS) | 46° | 37° | 25% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 49° | 40° | 71% |
| German model (ICON) | 50° | 38° | 43% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 47° | 40° | 43% |
| The average | 48° | 38° | 41% |
High 49° Low 34° Rain 12%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 1°, rain spread 27 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 49° | 34° | 7% |
| US model (GFS) | 48° | 31° | 2% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 48° | 36° | 6% |
| German model (ICON) | 49° | 34° | 15% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 48° | 35° | 29% |
| The average | 49° | 34° | 12% |
High 51° Low 39° Rain 0%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 52° | 32° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 49° | 43° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 51° | 41° | 2% |
| German model (ICON) | 52° | 39° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 50° | 39° | 0% |
| The average | 51° | 39° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.