Minority Report

Erie, KS — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Neosho County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 57°   Low 34°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°0%
US model (GFS)57°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)58°38°0%
German model (ICON)57°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)58°32°0%
The average57°34°0%

Friday, November 13

High 48°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°27°0%
US model (GFS)46°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°33°0%
German model (ICON)48°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°25°0%
The average48°28°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 52°   Low 27°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°35°5%
US model (GFS)53°23°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°31°0%
German model (ICON)53°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°20°0%
The average52°27°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 34°   Rain 17%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 19 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 17%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°34°17%
US model (GFS)51°38°15%
European model (ECMWF)53°34°10%
German model (ICON)54°34°14%
Canadian model (GEM)48°32°29%
The average51°34°17%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.