Erie, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Erie County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 48° Low 41° Rain 80%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 72 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 39° | 28% |
| US model (GFS) | 48° | 40° | 77% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 46° | 42° | 100% |
| German model (ICON) | 48° | 41° | 95% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 50° | 42° | 100% |
| The average | 48° | 41° | 80% |
High 41° Low 38° Rain 53%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 90 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 40° | 40° | 55% |
| US model (GFS) | 40° | 38° | 8% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 43° | 36° | 98% |
| German model (ICON) | 41° | 38° | 35% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 42° | 40° | 71% |
| The average | 41° | 38° | 53% |
High 45° Low 39° Rain 56%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 67 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 46° | 41° | 44% |
| US model (GFS) | 45° | 39° | 23% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 44° | 36° | 64% |
| German model (ICON) | 45° | 38° | 59% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 44° | 40° | 90% |
| The average | 45° | 39° | 56% |
High 44° Low 40° Rain 35%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 29 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 46° | 38° | 36% |
| US model (GFS) | 44° | 42° | 19% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 44° | 39° | 48% |
| German model (ICON) | 44° | 41° | 29% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 44° | 40° | 44% |
| The average | 44° | 40° | 35% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.