Minority Report

Erin, TN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Houston County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 60°   Low 39°   Rain 18%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 57 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 57% against a group average of 18%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°0%
US model (GFS)62°40°1%
European model (ECMWF)60°43°57%
German model (ICON)60°40°18%
Canadian model (GEM)60°41°14%
The average60°39°18%

Friday, November 13

High 48°   Low 34°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°29°0%
US model (GFS)47°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°38°0%
German model (ICON)49°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°35°0%
The average48°34°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 51°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°27°0%
US model (GFS)51°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°33°0%
German model (ICON)53°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°32°0%
The average51°31°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 55°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°30°1%
US model (GFS)55°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)54°33°0%
German model (ICON)57°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)53°26°0%
The average55°31°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.