Minority Report

Estancia, NM — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Torrance County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 64°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—25°0%
US model (GFS)64°26°0%
European model (ECMWF)64°33°0%
German model (ICON)63°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)65°22°0%
The average64°26°0%

Friday, November 13

High 63°   Low 29°   Rain 34%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 44 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 67% against a group average of 34%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°35°26%
US model (GFS)63°30°23%
European model (ECMWF)63°33°67%
German model (ICON)62°27°30%
Canadian model (GEM)65°18°24%
The average63°29°34%

Saturday, November 14

High 53°   Low 37°   Rain 56%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 58 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 88% against a group average of 56%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°32°52%
US model (GFS)53°38°55%
European model (ECMWF)52°39°88%
German model (ICON)52°38°57%
Canadian model (GEM)54°36°30%
The average53°37°56%

Sunday, November 15

High 54°   Low 32°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°28°0%
US model (GFS)53°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)54°33°4%
German model (ICON)57°35°1%
Canadian model (GEM)52°29°0%
The average54°32°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.