Minority Report

Eugene, OR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lane County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 59°   Low 47°   Rain 11%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 54 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 54% against a group average of 11%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°46°54%
US model (GFS)57°47°2%
European model (ECMWF)58°46°0%
German model (ICON)57°46°0%
Canadian model (GEM)61°49°0%
The average59°47°11%

Friday, November 13

High 57°   Low 47°   Rain 96%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 11 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°45°99%
US model (GFS)55°47°89%
European model (ECMWF)58°45°100%
German model (ICON)58°47°100%
Canadian model (GEM)57°50°90%
The average57°47°96%

Saturday, November 14

High 60°   Low 48°   Rain 84%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 27 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 98% against a group average of 84%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°46°98%
US model (GFS)58°47°74%
European model (ECMWF)62°48°86%
German model (ICON)61°51°71%
Canadian model (GEM)59°50°91%
The average60°48°84%

Sunday, November 15

High 54°   Low 42°   Rain 98%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°40°99%
US model (GFS)51°42°94%
European model (ECMWF)54°42°100%
German model (ICON)55°43°98%
Canadian model (GEM)58°45°100%
The average54°42°98%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.