Minority Report

Eureka, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Humboldt County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 70°   Low 50°   Rain 39%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 90 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 39%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—55°100%
US model (GFS)74°50°10%
European model (ECMWF)73°49°41%
German model (ICON)67°49°10%
Canadian model (GEM)65°49°33%
The average70°50°39%

Friday, November 13

High 61°   Low 51°   Rain 100%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service60°48°100%
US model (GFS)60°50°100%
European model (ECMWF)61°51°100%
German model (ICON)62°55°100%
Canadian model (GEM)62°52°100%
The average61°51°100%

Saturday, November 14

High 61°   Low 52°   Rain 90%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 35 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 65% against a group average of 90%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°50°100%
US model (GFS)61°51°92%
European model (ECMWF)63°50°96%
German model (ICON)61°54°65%
Canadian model (GEM)60°52°97%
The average61°52°90%

Sunday, November 15

High 58°   Low 48°   Rain 100%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°45°100%
US model (GFS)57°45°100%
European model (ECMWF)58°47°100%
German model (ICON)58°51°100%
Canadian model (GEM)57°50°100%
The average58°48°100%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.