Minority Report

Eureka, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Woodford County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 44°   Low 32°   Rain 24%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 40 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 45% against a group average of 24%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°9%
US model (GFS)44°33°5%
European model (ECMWF)45°35°45%
Canadian model (GEM)42°32°35%
The average44°32°24%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 27°   Rain 4%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 12 points, 4 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°25°12%
US model (GFS)41°26°2%
European model (ECMWF)42°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°27°0%
The average42°27°4%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°26°0%
US model (GFS)45°25°0%
European model (ECMWF)45°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°22°0%
The average45°25°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°27°0%
US model (GFS)49°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°20°0%
The average48°27°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.