Fairfax County, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Fairfax County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 64° Low 46° Rain 45%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 78 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 43° | 6% |
| US model (GFS) | 64° | 45° | 21% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 63° | 46° | 84% |
| German model (ICON) | 62° | 48° | 83% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 65° | 48° | 32% |
| The average | 64° | 46° | 45% |
High 48° Low 37° Rain 19%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 28 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 49° | 35° | 12% |
| US model (GFS) | 46° | 35° | 3% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 48° | 42° | 31% |
| German model (ICON) | 49° | 36° | 20% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 48° | 38° | 29% |
| The average | 48° | 37° | 19% |
High 49° Low 35° Rain 5%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 50° | 37° | 3% |
| US model (GFS) | 49° | 32° | 2% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 48° | 37° | 1% |
| German model (ICON) | 50° | 34° | 3% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 48° | 34° | 14% |
| The average | 49° | 35° | 5% |
High 51° Low 39° Rain 0%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 53° | 36° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 50° | 42° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 51° | 41° | 2% |
| German model (ICON) | 51° | 38° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 50° | 38° | 0% |
| The average | 51° | 39° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.