Minority Report

Fairfield, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Solano County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 73°   Low 47°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 25 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 25% against a group average of 6%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—52°25%
US model (GFS)74°43°3%
European model (ECMWF)73°50°0%
German model (ICON)71°49°0%
Canadian model (GEM)73°42°1%
The average73°47°6%

Friday, November 13

High 60°   Low 49°   Rain 99%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°45°97%
US model (GFS)59°49°100%
European model (ECMWF)60°52°100%
German model (ICON)60°53°100%
Canadian model (GEM)60°48°100%
The average60°49°99%

Saturday, November 14

High 64°   Low 47°   Rain 9%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 1°, rain spread 19 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 19% against a group average of 9%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°47°9%
US model (GFS)64°47°12%
European model (ECMWF)64°47°0%
German model (ICON)64°47°5%
Canadian model (GEM)63°46°19%
The average64°47°9%

Sunday, November 15

High 63°   Low 49°   Rain 92%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 11°, rain spread 14 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°46°89%
US model (GFS)68°52°86%
European model (ECMWF)62°52°94%
German model (ICON)56°49°100%
Canadian model (GEM)65°46°92%
The average63°49°92%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.