Minority Report

Fairplay, CO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Park County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 50°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—28°0%
US model (GFS)52°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°24°0%
German model (ICON)52°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°28°0%
The average50°28°0%

Friday, November 13

High 46°   Low 27°   Rain 5%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 5%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°26°24%
US model (GFS)49°28°0%
European model (ECMWF)43°27°0%
German model (ICON)47°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°26°0%
The average46°27°5%

Saturday, November 14

High 38°   Low 25°   Rain 62%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 25 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 45% against a group average of 62%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°25°59%
US model (GFS)38°24°67%
European model (ECMWF)37°25°70%
German model (ICON)38°29°45%
Canadian model (GEM)38°24°67%
The average38°25°62%

Sunday, November 15

High 41°   Low 23°   Rain 8%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 19 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 19% against a group average of 8%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°22°0%
US model (GFS)41°25°8%
European model (ECMWF)39°24°2%
German model (ICON)42°26°13%
Canadian model (GEM)41°19°19%
The average41°23°8%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.