Minority Report

Fallon, NV — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Churchill County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 63°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°1%
US model (GFS)68°26°0%
European model (ECMWF)64°37°0%
German model (ICON)61°22°0%
Canadian model (GEM)58°18°0%
The average63°27°0%

Friday, November 13

High 63°   Low 30°   Rain 69%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 44 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 99% against a group average of 69%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°29°65%
US model (GFS)66°37°55%
European model (ECMWF)63°38°99%
German model (ICON)62°27°65%
Canadian model (GEM)61°19°62%
The average63°30°69%

Saturday, November 14

High 53°   Low 29°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 7 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°29°0%
US model (GFS)51°32°1%
European model (ECMWF)53°35°7%
German model (ICON)52°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°22°0%
The average53°29°2%

Sunday, November 15

High 57°   Low 32°   Rain 20%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 56 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 58% against a group average of 20%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°33°58%
US model (GFS)57°44°6%
European model (ECMWF)60°37°2%
German model (ICON)55°27°28%
Canadian model (GEM)56°21°7%
The average57°32°20%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.