Minority Report

Falls Church, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Falls Church city.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 63°   Low 46°   Rain 38%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 75 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 80% against a group average of 38%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—42°5%
US model (GFS)63°45°21%
German model (ICON)63°49°80%
Canadian model (GEM)64°47°48%
The average63°46°38%

Friday, November 13

High 48°   Low 36°   Rain 19%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 27 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 3% against a group average of 19%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°36°14%
US model (GFS)46°35°3%
German model (ICON)49°36°30%
Canadian model (GEM)48°38°29%
The average48°36°19%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 34°   Rain 8%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 1°, rain spread 16 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 18% against a group average of 8%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°38°4%
US model (GFS)49°32°2%
German model (ICON)50°34°8%
Canadian model (GEM)49°33°18%
The average49°34°8%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 39°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°37°0%
US model (GFS)50°42°0%
German model (ICON)52°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°40°0%
The average51°39°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.