Minority Report

Fayetteville, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Washington County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 60°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°0%
US model (GFS)61°39°0%
European model (ECMWF)60°39°0%
German model (ICON)59°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)59°38°0%
The average60°37°0%

Friday, November 13

High 49°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°28°0%
US model (GFS)47°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°34°0%
German model (ICON)50°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°27°0%
The average49°30°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 53°   Low 29°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°35°5%
US model (GFS)54°30°1%
European model (ECMWF)52°31°0%
German model (ICON)54°25°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°22°0%
The average53°29°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 37°   Rain 34%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 28 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 53% against a group average of 34%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°35°25%
US model (GFS)55°38°29%
European model (ECMWF)49°38°33%
German model (ICON)52°35°30%
Canadian model (GEM)47°37°53%
The average51°37°34%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.