Minority Report

Flemington, NJ — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Hunterdon County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 59°   Low 44°   Rain 96%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 20 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 80% against a group average of 96%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°80%
US model (GFS)58°48°98%
European model (ECMWF)60°48°100%
German model (ICON)57°46°100%
Canadian model (GEM)58°43°100%
The average59°44°96%

Friday, November 13

High 47°   Low 35°   Rain 97%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 11 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°31°98%
US model (GFS)48°35°89%
European model (ECMWF)48°36°96%
German model (ICON)46°38°100%
Canadian model (GEM)46°36°100%
The average47°35°97%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 34°   Rain 24%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 41 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 2% against a group average of 24%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°32°2%
US model (GFS)43°34°26%
European model (ECMWF)45°33°4%
German model (ICON)45°34°43%
Canadian model (GEM)43°35°43%
The average45°34°24%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 35°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°32°0%
US model (GFS)45°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°38°2%
German model (ICON)48°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°35°0%
The average47°35°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.