Minority Report

Florence, AZ — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Pinal County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 83°   Low 58°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 5 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—59°5%
US model (GFS)82°54°1%
European model (ECMWF)82°58°0%
German model (ICON)83°63°0%
Canadian model (GEM)84°54°0%
The average83°58°1%

Friday, November 13

High 77°   Low 56°   Rain 59%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 42 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 82% against a group average of 59%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service77°56°43%
US model (GFS)79°55°62%
European model (ECMWF)78°57°82%
German model (ICON)77°62°40%
Canadian model (GEM)76°50°68%
The average77°56°59%

Saturday, November 14

High 68°   Low 54°   Rain 39%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 49 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 11% against a group average of 39%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service71°52°42%
US model (GFS)67°54°23%
European model (ECMWF)66°55°57%
German model (ICON)67°57°60%
Canadian model (GEM)70°50°11%
The average68°54°39%

Sunday, November 15

High 72°   Low 53°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service73°54°0%
US model (GFS)71°58°0%
European model (ECMWF)72°51°2%
German model (ICON)72°56°0%
Canadian model (GEM)71°46°0%
The average72°53°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.