Minority Report

Florence, WI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Florence County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 36°   Low 29°   Rain 30%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 55 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 68% against a group average of 30%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—24°37%
US model (GFS)36°30°17%
European model (ECMWF)37°31°13%
German model (ICON)36°30°68%
Canadian model (GEM)35°31°14%
The average36°29°30%

Friday, November 13

High 36°   Low 29°   Rain 16%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 25 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 30% against a group average of 16%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service37°26°30%
US model (GFS)35°30°14%
European model (ECMWF)36°29°16%
German model (ICON)37°29°15%
Canadian model (GEM)33°29°5%
The average36°29°16%

Saturday, November 14

High 40°   Low 26°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 7 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°23°0%
US model (GFS)39°29°7%
European model (ECMWF)41°28°0%
German model (ICON)40°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)40°23°0%
The average40°26°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 44°   Low 24°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°23°0%
US model (GFS)42°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)44°27°0%
German model (ICON)45°23°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°20°0%
The average44°24°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.