Minority Report

Fonda, NY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Montgomery County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 44°   Low 35°   Rain 100%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 2 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°98%
US model (GFS)43°36°100%
European model (ECMWF)44°36°100%
German model (ICON)44°37°100%
Canadian model (GEM)43°37°100%
The average44°35°100%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 31°   Rain 93%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 32 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 68% against a group average of 93%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°27°68%
US model (GFS)42°33°99%
European model (ECMWF)41°34°100%
German model (ICON)40°35°100%
Canadian model (GEM)38°26°100%
The average40°31°93%

Saturday, November 14

High 41°   Low 31°   Rain 17%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 39 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 39% against a group average of 17%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°29°12%
US model (GFS)41°32°5%
European model (ECMWF)42°31°39%
German model (ICON)42°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°29°29%
The average41°31°17%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 33°   Rain 2%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°25°5%
US model (GFS)43°33°1%
European model (ECMWF)44°36°4%
German model (ICON)43°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)42°35°0%
The average43°33°2%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.