Minority Report

Fordyce, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Dallas County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 71°   Low 46°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°1%
US model (GFS)72°49°0%
European model (ECMWF)71°50°0%
German model (ICON)70°46°0%
Canadian model (GEM)71°52°0%
The average71°46°0%

Friday, November 13

High 56°   Low 36°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°30°0%
US model (GFS)56°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)56°40°0%
German model (ICON)55°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)58°39°0%
The average56°36°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 55°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°33°1%
US model (GFS)57°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)54°36°0%
German model (ICON)55°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°35°0%
The average55°32°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 39°   Rain 40%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 26 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 54% against a group average of 40%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°36°30%
US model (GFS)60°39°28%
European model (ECMWF)54°40°54%
German model (ICON)56°38°54%
Canadian model (GEM)56°41°35%
The average56°39°40%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.