Minority Report

Fort Davis, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Jeff Davis County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 66°   Low 44°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—45°0%
US model (GFS)67°43°0%
European model (ECMWF)65°44°0%
German model (ICON)66°45°0%
Canadian model (GEM)68°41°0%
The average66°44°0%

Friday, November 13

High 69°   Low 46°   Rain 66%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 48 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 91% against a group average of 66%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service71°47°91%
US model (GFS)70°47°67%
European model (ECMWF)67°46°80%
German model (ICON)68°46°43%
Canadian model (GEM)71°44°48%
The average69°46°66%

Saturday, November 14

High 64°   Low 47°   Rain 54%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 95 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 1% against a group average of 54%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°47°1%
US model (GFS)63°48°63%
European model (ECMWF)63°46°96%
German model (ICON)63°51°75%
Canadian model (GEM)65°43°33%
The average64°47°54%

Sunday, November 15

High 63°   Low 44°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°41°0%
US model (GFS)62°49°0%
European model (ECMWF)63°46°2%
German model (ICON)63°47°0%
Canadian model (GEM)64°40°0%
The average63°44°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.