Minority Report

Fort Sumner, NM — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of De Baca County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 68°   Low 36°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°0%
US model (GFS)68°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)68°40°0%
German model (ICON)68°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)67°33°0%
The average68°36°0%

Friday, November 13

High 65°   Low 37°   Rain 37%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 43 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 59% against a group average of 37%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service67°47°59%
US model (GFS)65°39°16%
European model (ECMWF)66°39°47%
German model (ICON)65°32°20%
Canadian model (GEM)64°31°45%
The average65°37°37%

Saturday, November 14

High 62°   Low 44°   Rain 67%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 46 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 94% against a group average of 67%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°43°59%
US model (GFS)64°42°48%
European model (ECMWF)61°48°94%
German model (ICON)61°46°72%
Canadian model (GEM)61°43°62%
The average62°44°67%

Sunday, November 15

High 57°   Low 40°   Rain 3%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 7 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°37°0%
US model (GFS)62°45°0%
European model (ECMWF)54°42°2%
German model (ICON)60°40°5%
Canadian model (GEM)54°34°7%
The average57°40°3%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.