Minority Report

Fort Wayne, IN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Allen County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 47°   Low 38°   Rain 80%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 44 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 56% against a group average of 80%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°56%
US model (GFS)47°41°66%
European model (ECMWF)47°40°100%
Canadian model (GEM)47°39°100%
The average47°38°80%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 31°   Rain 28%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 36 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 47% against a group average of 28%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°27°15%
US model (GFS)42°31°11%
European model (ECMWF)42°32°47%
Canadian model (GEM)40°34°37%
The average41°31°28%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 30°   Rain 3%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 9 points, 4 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°34°9%
US model (GFS)44°31°3%
European model (ECMWF)46°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°26°0%
The average45°30°3%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 34°   Rain 6%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 11 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°31°13%
US model (GFS)46°36°3%
European model (ECMWF)46°39°2%
Canadian model (GEM)46°31°5%
The average46°34°6%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.