Minority Report

Fossil, OR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Wheeler County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 66°   Low 49°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—50°1%
US model (GFS)68°49°0%
European model (ECMWF)66°49°0%
German model (ICON)68°51°0%
Canadian model (GEM)63°44°0%
The average66°49°0%

Friday, November 13

High 60°   Low 43°   Rain 66%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 50 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 93% against a group average of 66%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°40°64%
US model (GFS)58°41°71%
European model (ECMWF)62°46°93%
German model (ICON)60°47°43%
Canadian model (GEM)58°41°57%
The average60°43°66%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 41°   Rain 29%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 72 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 81% against a group average of 29%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°42°81%
US model (GFS)52°39°31%
European model (ECMWF)55°43°14%
German model (ICON)54°45°10%
Canadian model (GEM)52°37°9%
The average54°41°29%

Sunday, November 15

High 50°   Low 40°   Rain 76%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 26 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 58% against a group average of 76%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°37°81%
US model (GFS)48°41°76%
European model (ECMWF)48°41°84%
German model (ICON)51°40°80%
Canadian model (GEM)54°42°58%
The average50°40°76%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.