Frederick, MD — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Frederick County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 62° Low 45° Rain 49%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 74 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 41° | 10% |
| US model (GFS) | 61° | 44° | 24% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 64° | 46° | 84% |
| German model (ICON) | 61° | 48° | 78% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 64° | 45° | 48% |
| The average | 62° | 45° | 49% |
High 47° Low 37° Rain 33%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 58 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 48° | 33° | 22% |
| US model (GFS) | 44° | 36° | 7% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 48° | 41° | 65% |
| German model (ICON) | 48° | 36° | 38% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 48° | 38° | 33% |
| The average | 47° | 37° | 33% |
High 49° Low 34° Rain 6%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 11 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 50° | 35° | 8% |
| US model (GFS) | 48° | 31° | 2% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 49° | 37° | 2% |
| German model (ICON) | 49° | 34° | 5% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 47° | 34° | 13% |
| The average | 49° | 34° | 6% |
High 50° Low 37° Rain 1%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 52° | 33° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 48° | 35° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 51° | 41° | 6% |
| German model (ICON) | 50° | 39° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 49° | 39° | 0% |
| The average | 50° | 37° | 1% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.