Minority Report

Frederick, OK — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Tillman County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 76°   Low 47°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—45°0%
US model (GFS)76°49°0%
European model (ECMWF)75°46°0%
German model (ICON)76°48°0%
Canadian model (GEM)75°45°0%
The average76°47°0%

Friday, November 13

High 62°   Low 45°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°44°0%
US model (GFS)62°46°0%
European model (ECMWF)62°45°0%
German model (ICON)61°43°0%
Canadian model (GEM)63°45°0%
The average62°45°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 58°   Low 43°   Rain 91%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 12 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°45°96%
US model (GFS)62°40°86%
European model (ECMWF)54°45°96%
German model (ICON)57°43°92%
Canadian model (GEM)59°41°84%
The average58°43°91%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 43°   Rain 93%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 78% against a group average of 93%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°41°78%
US model (GFS)52°44°92%
European model (ECMWF)48°44°98%
German model (ICON)46°43°98%
Canadian model (GEM)46°41°100%
The average49°43°93%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.