Minority Report

Fredericksburg, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Gillespie County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 74°   Low 50°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—48°0%
US model (GFS)74°53°0%
European model (ECMWF)74°54°0%
German model (ICON)73°52°0%
Canadian model (GEM)74°45°0%
The average74°50°0%

Friday, November 13

High 73°   Low 49°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service73°48°0%
US model (GFS)70°54°0%
European model (ECMWF)75°53°0%
German model (ICON)73°46°0%
Canadian model (GEM)75°44°0%
The average73°49°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 67°   Low 51°   Rain 53%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 42 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 76% against a group average of 53%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°53°54%
US model (GFS)66°51°34%
European model (ECMWF)69°52°76%
German model (ICON)62°53°58%
Canadian model (GEM)73°48°41%
The average67°51°53%

Sunday, November 15

High 69°   Low 51°   Rain 60%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 32 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 78% against a group average of 60%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°47°69%
US model (GFS)68°56°46%
European model (ECMWF)66°50°78%
German model (ICON)73°51°48%
Canadian model (GEM)73°52°57%
The average69°51°60%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.