Minority Report

Fredericktown, MO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Madison County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 57°   Low 36°   Rain 5%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 12 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°0%
US model (GFS)58°38°4%
European model (ECMWF)57°40°12%
German model (ICON)56°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)57°39°10%
The average57°36°5%

Friday, November 13

High 45°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°23°0%
US model (GFS)44°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)43°36°0%
German model (ICON)46°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°29°0%
The average45°29°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 50°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°24°0%
US model (GFS)50°23°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°30°0%
German model (ICON)50°24°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°24°0%
The average50°25°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 53°   Low 29°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°26°2%
US model (GFS)54°32°1%
European model (ECMWF)52°32°0%
German model (ICON)55°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°23°4%
The average53°29°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.