Minority Report

Freehold, NJ — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Monmouth County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 61°   Low 47°   Rain 95%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 19 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 81% against a group average of 95%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°81%
US model (GFS)60°49°92%
European model (ECMWF)62°51°100%
German model (ICON)62°51°100%
Canadian model (GEM)62°47°100%
The average61°47°95%

Friday, November 13

High 50°   Low 34°   Rain 97%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 7 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°30°93%
US model (GFS)50°37°99%
European model (ECMWF)52°35°99%
German model (ICON)52°37°93%
Canadian model (GEM)52°34°100%
The average50°34°97%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 33°   Rain 30%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 75 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 75% against a group average of 30%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°31°0%
US model (GFS)44°35°29%
European model (ECMWF)45°33°10%
German model (ICON)45°34°75%
Canadian model (GEM)44°33°38%
The average45°33°30%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 34°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°32°0%
US model (GFS)46°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°34°2%
German model (ICON)48°36°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°34°0%
The average48°34°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.