Minority Report

Friday Harbor, WA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of San Juan County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 58°   Low 52°   Rain 19%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 36 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 41% against a group average of 19%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—50°41%
US model (GFS)59°51°16%
German model (ICON)58°54°15%
Canadian model (GEM)57°51°5%
The average58°52°19%

Friday, November 13

High 57°   Low 51°   Rain 25%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 31 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 45% against a group average of 25%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°47°26%
US model (GFS)54°49°45%
German model (ICON)58°54°15%
Canadian model (GEM)57°53°14%
The average57°51°25%

Saturday, November 14

High 56°   Low 49°   Rain 56%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 49 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 56%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°47°78%
US model (GFS)54°48°47%
German model (ICON)56°51°68%
Canadian model (GEM)56°49°29%
The average56°49°56%

Sunday, November 15

High 55°   Low 47°   Rain 60%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 42 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 38% against a group average of 60%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°43°58%
US model (GFS)54°46°62%
German model (ICON)56°48°80%
Canadian model (GEM)55°49°38%
The average55°47°60%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.