Minority Report

Friendship, WI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Adams County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 40°   Low 30°   Rain 9%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 1°, rain spread 29 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 9%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—25°11%
US model (GFS)40°30°1%
European model (ECMWF)40°33°29%
German model (ICON)41°31°5%
Canadian model (GEM)39°32°0%
The average40°30°9%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 28°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°24°2%
US model (GFS)40°29°1%
European model (ECMWF)40°28°2%
German model (ICON)42°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)40°31°0%
The average40°28°1%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°25°0%
US model (GFS)42°26°1%
European model (ECMWF)43°27°0%
German model (ICON)43°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°23°0%
The average43°25°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°24°0%
US model (GFS)45°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)45°28°0%
German model (ICON)48°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°15°0%
The average46°25°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.